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Thursday, May 26, 2011

Don't Stockpile For WoW Patch 4.2 Just Yet


Stockpiling For Patch 4.2

A lot of the other warcraft blogs and resource sites are already telling you what items to stockpile to take advantage of the looming World of Warcraft Patch 4.2.  WoW Patch 4.2 will be adding a lot of new craftable recipes for gear and weapons.  Many of these are going to require vast amounts of high end raw materials.  By stocking up prior to a Patch, you are able to maximize your ability to craft heavy batches of items to meet the major demand spikes that occur just after a Patch is released.

Stockpiling items that you know you will be able to use in your gold making ventures is a good idea.  The key is knowing what to stockpile, how much of it, and when to start stockpiling.  While I agree with the obvious items that are good options for stockpiling, I don't agree with the idea that you should already be starting your stockpiling efforts.  Now is not the time to start stockpiling for Patch 4.2.  I haven't started yet myself, but I will start in a couple of weeks.

Market Cycles of WoW

One of the major things you learn when becoming a veteran gold maker is the changing market cycles of the World of Warcraft economy.  After playing in multiple markets for years, it becomes second nature to predict and expect certain changes within the economy.  That's what we gold bloggers do.  We try to help you understand these cycles beforehand so that you too can be prepared to profit.  Have you been learning?

When are the two times that Small Eggs are the most valuable?


Answer is within this post on WoW Market Cycles, if you need help.

Ok, that one was easy.

Thinking about a different market cycle now.

What major cycle happens every year around this same time every single year (give or a take a week or two) that affects a lot of the markets in World of Warcraft?

This market cycle leads to an influx of players, an increase in items sold daily, an increase in competition on the auction house, increased playtime hours, and even more horrible banter in the trade chat channel.  Think about the question and try and identify the cycle yourself.

The Summer Cycle

Yup, you've got it!  Schools will be letting out for the summer session.  The end of the school year for colleges and high schools is a major market cycle that you can count on every year.  Remember how grateful we were when school started back up in the fall?  Well, it is time to be thinking about those changes that the influx of players with longer available play times will bring to the markets of WoW.

More playtime and more players means more influx of raw materials, more chances of people posting things for stupid prices, and  more chances to get undercut on the auction house and drive the prices even lower.  So for this reason alone, I have not yet begun to stockpile materials for the Patch 4.2 release.  Once the majority of schools are out for the summer, we will start to see prices dropping in many markets.  So wait a couple of weeks and then start stockpiling, as this influx of players will lead to many raw materials markets giving way to cheaper prices.  Stockpiling is all about getting a large volume of materials at the the best prices to provide a larger profit margin once the demand skyrockets.

Why stockpile now, when you can probably get the same materials for cheaper in a couple of weeks?


Anyone disagree with my thinking?

Image credit: Alto's Goldish Advise

10 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  2. quite valid however different regions have different holiday times for the summer. id be surprised if 4.2 wasn't out before the end of June.

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  3. Hmmm Cold you make a good point. By the same token, we don't know when Patch 4.2 will happen.
    Some Midwestern kids get out of school in May, but kids here in the Northeast get out of school at the end of June.
    At least one kid in school who begs gold from me has learned how to make a profit on Heavy Savage Leather. I told him to go skin the crocodiles and spiders in Tol Barad and sell leather on the auction house. Never mind that I'm his biggest buyer on one of my alts.

    I traded 10 heavy savage leather in for a pristine hide, but so did he and posted his
    for alot less than mine. (He sells 1 heavy savage leather for 35 gold, but sells 1 pristine hide for 250 gold.)

    He is 12 years old. I doubt if he is aggressively controlling his market.
    And he does cry baby to me that I have more gold than he does and I should share with him.

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  4. I have a price threshold I am buying things to stokpile at. If it goes below that price I buy. Doesn't matter to me if it is late May or mid June. If I get to buy MORE under my threshold because of the summer school cycle, well, bully for me.

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  5. So hard for me to post something useful here and not make a snide remark about how only the Alliance side economy will benefit from schools letting out. Out wait, did I just make that snide remark anyway? xD.

    Well played, and I agree. Look for the influx, the only people who can compete with bots and professional farmers are kids who have their summer days all to their selves. Depending on launch time, if it's during the summer, you'll see an initial price jump in raw materials, but it will quickly get eaten up by people with available time to go out and gather.

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  6. You make a valid point Cold. Cautionary warnings will hopefully prevent some folks without a plan from blindly buying.

    The influx of new players for the summer doesn't necessarily mean more high end materials--many of these players will not have toons high enough to penetrate the new zones. Sure, some will but many will be low to mid level, maybe not even played since last summer or the Xmas break. That may affect prices for mid level mats more than high end mats.

    The BoE Epics take 40 Vols apiece. The blues all take about the same number as today's do but there is more to do with Vol Earth. This alone means the Vols will continue with the same demand or greater.

    I think buying these at a level that would ensure a profit now makes sense--worst case, sell after 4.2 and make the same margin as today. Best case? Double or more.

    I hadn't really considered the summer influx of players. I'm glad you reminded me to be on the lookout.

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  7. Good point, Cold.

    I, however, agree with Thomas, and a point Kammler made. I have already been stocking up, but I don't ever do any of it without some sort of a plan. Part of my plan includes having a profitable thing to do with the materials now AND later.

    If you have a plan, and an item is listed below your threshold, buy it. It doesn't matter when kids are out of school.

    If you're stocking up, just for the sake of stocking up (i.e. 4.2), then perhaps caution is still best at this point.

    Any one have good educational guesses on when 4.2 will be released?

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  8. All good points made and stock piling is always a gamble. Sometimes the odds are a little greater on your return but a gamble none the less. However I have 500k and like to gamble lol so either way its fun for me. If I lose than I have some gold to make back and if I win than I have more gold to give away on my server... In the big scheme of things if your a vet. gold maker than you know how to make gold, its not about how much you have its about knowing how to make it. Gambling is not a sure fire way but it is fun.

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  9. @ Cold: an excellent point. However, in my (non-AH) playing, I was under the impression that less raiding tends to happen over the summer as more people tend to get out more, vacation, etc. Doesn't that mean less higher-end players are on, less mat farming, etc? This is my third WoW summer, my first being when I actually started, so all I really have to go by is one year and my guild leader griping abt how much he hates the lack of logins over the summer, lol. Regardless, excellent point, and it means a good time to eyeball low and mid level mats.

    @Kammler: But some of those teens *will* have higher level raiding toons, which means *some* of the influx will be high end.

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  10. @scottiegazelle

    It is common sentiment among gold making WoW players. By the time the summer is rolling to an end, we will all be soooooo ready for all the damn kids and their undercutting AH camping ways to get back to school so we can get more profit out of our auctions with less babysitting.

    It's the same thing every year.

    Looking at your less raiding philosophy, less raiders means more non-raiding activities (farming, leveling alts - smart players grab gathering professions while leveling).

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